A Framework for Detecting and Classifying Outbreaks of Gastrointestinal Disease

Introduction Outbreaks of waterborne gastrointestinal disease occur routinely in North America, resulting in considerable morbidity, mortality, and cost (Hrudey, Payment et al. 2003). Outbreak detection methods generally attempt to identify anomalies in time, but do not identify the type or source of an outbreak. We seek to develop a framework for both detection and classification of outbreaks using information in both space and time. Outbreak detection can be improved by using simulated outbreak data to build, validate, and evaluate models that aim to improve accuracy and timeliness of outbreak detection.